UEFA EURO 2016 predictions: semi finals

UEFA EURO 2016 predictions - semi finals

In this post you can find UEFA EURO 2016 predictions for the two semi finals matches: Portugal – Wales and Germany – France which will be played on the 6th and 7th of July 2016.

The predictions are based on the an adaptation of the algorithm used for computing odds in Sim Betting Football, the only football betting simulation game.

The algorithm takes into consideration the results in the tournament so far and the performance of the football players who played for each team. The algorithm is designed for predicting matches in leagues and this is the first time it’s used for a tournament, but hopefully it will give you some good tips on the UEFA EURO 2016 semi finals matches.

Portugal – Wales

Wales are the underdog in this match, but their numbers in the tournament and the (many) not convincing performances of Portugal make this a very interesting challenge.

The game algorithm predicted the following probabilities for the 3 possible full time results:

Portugal draw Wales
19% 32% 49%

So basically there’s a high chance Wales will win.

The most likely scores are:

Scores Probability
0 – 1 20%
0 – 0 18%
1 – 1 12%
0 – 2 12%

As you might have imagined from the scores, the total number of goals should be pretty low. These are the probabilities for over/under goals:

Over 2.5 Under 2.5
25% 75%

In conclusion, Wales should win by 1 goal.

Germany – France

Germany and France have always been the 2 top contenders of this tournament and both have done pretty well so far.

The game algorithm predicted the following probabilities for the 3 possible full time results:

Germany draw France
27% 34% 39%

France seem to be the favourite team, but a draw is a quite possible result as well.

The most likely scores are:

Scores Probability
0 – 0 19%
0 – 1 18%
1 – 0 14%
1 – 1 13%

For this match the total number of goals should be pretty low as well. These are the probabilities for over/under goals:

Over 2.5 Under 2.5
24% 76%

In conclusion, this will be a very tight match and even if France have some edge, a draw can’t be excluded. No matter what the final results will be, there shouldn’t be more than 2 goals in total.

Conclusion

Who do you think are going to win and make it to the UEFA EURO 2016 final next Sunday?

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